Evaluating Proton Intensities for the SMILE Mission

Mischel, Simon ; Kronberg, Elena A. ; Escoubet, C. P. (2024): Evaluating Proton Intensities for the SMILE Mission. Space Weather, 22 (12): e2024SW003. ISSN 1542-7390

Abstract

This study introduces five linear regression models developed to accurately predict proton intensities in the critical energy range of 92.2–159.7 keV. To achieve this task we utilized 14 years of data sourced from the Cluster's RAPID experiment and NASA's OMNI database. This data was then aligned with the Solar wind-Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Link Explorer (SMILE) mission's trajectory, to increase model accuracy in the relevant regions. Our approach diverges from existing methodologies by offering a user-friendly model that doesn't require specialized software, making it accessible for broader applications in satellite mission planning and risk assessment. The research segregates the data set into four distinct regions, each analyzed for proton intensity dynamics. In the outer regions (YGSE) there is a pronounced dependence on radial distance and solar wind speed. In contrast, the inner regions (YGSE) demonstrate a significant dependence of proton intensities on the absolute value of the z-coordinate and the magnetic field line topology. Our models achieved a Spearman correlation ranging from 0.57 to 0.72 on the test set, indicating good predictive capabilities. The findings emphasize the role of regional characteristics in space weather prediction and underscore the potential for tailored approaches in future research.

Plain Language Summary:
We developed a new model to predict space weather, specifically focusing on proton intensities, which can impact how well satellites work in space. We used 14 years of space observations to create five easy-to-use numerical models. These models are designed to help with planning and protecting future satellite missions, such as the upcoming SMILE mission, from space weather effects. In our study, we looked closely at different areas in space around Earth. We found that in the outer areas (YGSE), the distance from Earth and the speed of the solar wind are important for understanding proton behavior. However, in areas (YGSE), the vertical distance from Earth's equatorial plane measured along the north-south axis and the type of magnetic field lines play a more significant role. This shows us that different areas in space around Earth can be affected by space weather in different ways. Our models did a good job of predicting these effects, showing that choosing a tailored approach can be useful when forecasting proton intensities.

• Dokumententyp: Artikel (LMU)
• Organisationseinheit (Fakultäten): 20 Geowissenschaften > Department für Geo- und Umweltwissenschaften
• DFG-Fachsystematik der Wissenschaftsbereiche: Naturwissenschaften
• DFG: Gefördert durch die Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - 491502892
• DFG: Gefördert durch die Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - 516641019