Modeling urban planning contributions to flood resilience under shared socioeconomic pathways

Feng, Wenhan; Liu, Yimeng; Zhu, Anqi; Mao, Junqi; Sun, Tianyi; Xu, Qingsong; Yang, Yuhan; Su, Hao; Wu, Wenhao; Yang, Qiqi; Ford, Alistair; Garschagen, Matthias; Yang, Liang Emlyn (2026): Modeling urban planning contributions to flood resilience under shared socioeconomic pathways. npj Urban Sustainability, 6: 45. ISSN 2661-8001

Abstract

Flooding from short-duration extreme rainfall poses growing risks to rapidly urbanizing regions under climate change. This study integrates 2035 urban planning into simulations of extreme rainfall-induced flooding in the Pearl River Delta Metropolitan region. Results show that while urban planning has limited impact on reducing overall hazard, it plays a critical role in redistributing it spatially. Flood hazard and exposure in 2035 were assessed under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Hazard decreases by about 10% in SSP1, remains stable in SSP2, and rises in SSP3 and SSP5, with SSP5 showing a 12% increase. Population exposure grows across all scenarios, with increases of 21% in SSP1, 25% in SSP2, 13% in SSP3, and 56% in SSP5. Asset exposure shows even larger increases, from 29% in SSP3 to more than 100% in SSP5. These results highlight that while urban planning can alleviate hazard locally, long-term resilience is dominated by socioeconomic development trajectories.

• Dokumententyp: Artikel (LMU)
• Organisationseinheit (Fakultäten): 20 Geowissenschaften > Department für Geographie
• DFG-Fachsystematik der Wissenschaftsbereiche: Naturwissenschaften
• DFG: Gefördert durch die Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - 491502892